NFL 2016 Draft Preview: Green Bay Packers

Odd would just be one of many words to describe the 2015 season for Green Bay.  It all really began in preseason, when Jordy Nelson tore his ACL.  Everyone knew it would be a tough blow to the offense, but there were also believed to be enough play-makers to get them by.  After a 6-0 start, it looked as if everything was going to be alright.  That was until the Packers got dismantled at the hands of the future Super Bowl Champions, a game in which Aaron Rodgers had a mere 77 passing yards.  Immediately after that, the "Pack Attack" quite literally began to lack any offensive attack.  The second half of the season we saw a team that was completely out of rhythm.  But, through Hail Marys and a few late season games against weaker competition, Green Bay found its way into the postseason for the 6th straight season.  They were even an overtime coin toss away from maybe moving on to their second straight NFC Championship Game appearance.

With all of that being noted, there are plenty of positions in need of attention for this young squad.  GM Ted Thompson thrives off the NFL Draft every season, and he generally isn't one to focus primarily on free agent pickups.  Let's take a look at some realistic scenarios for all 7 rounds of the draft for the Pack.

1st Round (Pick #27)

Jack Conklin -- OT -- Michigan St.

A few things to mention on this all-significant first pick.  Finding a pass rusher is very important for the defense, but protecting their franchise QB might be even more important.  The fact is though, it's not entirely about that.  David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga are both quality in protecting the passer, but also struggled in run blocking last season.  Eddie Lacy is a big boy, but can only break so many tackles before 3 defenders will inevitably take him down.  He needs running holes, and this is where Conklin comes in.  He may not be able to start on the left side, but the veteran Bulaga can slide in on any side.  By the way, he and Bakhtiari are in final years of their contract.

Backup Plan

Darron Lee -- OLB -- Ohio St.

Lee is ideally an outside guy in a 4-3 scheme, but his skills might be too much to pass up on.  He would instantly start as one of the two inside backer spots, next to Sam Barrington or Jake Ryan.  Ryan looks like he has potential and has more recent on-field time than Barrington who missed all of last season with an injury.  Ultimately, this allows Clay Matthews to move back to the outside linebacker as a primary pass-rusher opposite side of Julius Peppers, who plans to play out one more year.

2nd Round (Pick #57)

Tyler Boyd -- WR -- Pitt

Richard Rodgers might not cut it as a clear starter at tight end, but Hunter Henry will likely be gone at this point so they'll be wise to wait on that position.  Let's face it, we saw how ineffective Randall Cobb was as a #1 option last year.  Drafting Boyd to be playing opposite side of a healthy Jordy Nelson is as safe as it gets.  It allows Cobb to thrive back in the slot which he did the first few years of his career.   Davante Adams, Jeff Janis and Ty Montgomery are all questionable receiving targets right now for Rodgers.

Backup Plan

Sheldon Day -- DE -- Notre Dame

The size and frame of a DT, but Dom Capers' defensive scheme allows for the adjustment to a 3-4 end.  Almost a perfect pick to go opposite of Mike Daniels who just got a huge contract extension and was a force in the backfield of opposing offenses.  Letroy Guion is listed as the other defensive end, but B.J. Raji might not get re-signed so that puts Guion in the middle and Day to battle with Datone Jones for the other spot.

3rd Round (Pick #88)

Kentrell Brothers -- ILB -- Missouri

Tight End Nick Vannett 0ut of Ohio St. should be off the board at this point, so Ted Thompson fills in one of the middle linebacker spots.  Brothers was among the most sound tacklers in all of college football last season which is very much needed in one of  those two positions, if they hope to successfully keep Clay on the edge.

Backup Plan

Pharoh Cooper -- WR -- South Carolina

If the team hasn't gone with a receiver up to this point, they'll want to take one sooner rather than later.  Cooper doesn't have ideal height at wide out, but he's been compared ironically to Randall Cobb who would stay on the outside while Cooper takes control of slot duties.  Rodgers might have a a field day with this speedster.

4th Round (#122)

Xavien Howard -- CB -- Baylor

Casey Hayward is off to free agency which means that defense now has one less starter at outside corner.  With Quentin Rollins and Demarious Randall on the rise as youngsters coming off promising rookies seasons, a need at corner might no seem as pressing as other teams.  But let's not forgot how much Dom Capers loves a secondary arsenal, and Howard out of Baylor has nearly unmatched height at the position with a 6'2 frame.

Backup Plan

Josh Ferguson -- HB -- Illinois

It may be surprising that the team wouldn't have drafted a running back even up to this point based on how stagnant the run game was with Lacy.  But it seems that problem may have been more in run blocking across the offensive line.  Regardless, we know at some point this position will be addressed.  Ferguson is stout runner who is considered one of the better pass-catching backs in the draft.  What a nice weapon out of the backfield for A-Rod.

5th Round (#151)

Tyler Higbee -- TE -- Western Kentucky

Now would be the time to pull the trigger on tight end.  Higbee is 6'6, but a light 250 pounds, so he'll need to do some bulking up throughout the off-season. With that being said, he could become already the most athletic tight end on the roster for Green Bay and a deep threat target with his speed.

Backup Plan

Jason Fanaika -- DE/OLB -- Utah

We don't know yet if the team plans to bring back Nick Perry or Mike Neal.  It's always safe to pack in depth at outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme.  Fanaika is a stout body at 6'3 270 lbs, but nimble enough to become an edge rusher under Capers' defense.

6th Round (#181)

Tre Madden -- HB -- USC

Okay so if the team didn't select a back before, they're most definitely going to here.  Thompson is already notorious for drafting big ones at that (Lacy 6'2 and James Starks 6'1).  Madden matches up to the same height as Starks and has the similar long-stride running style that may lead to some home run type plays.

Backup Plan

Joe Haeg -- OT -- North Dakota St.

Whether they drafted a top grade tackle in the first round or two, they'll definitely want to stash one on the roster anyways with their two starters on final years of their contracts.  Haeg has ideal height for a tackle at 6'6, but would have to spend some time on the right side early on in his career.

7th Round (#216)

Josh Forrest -- ILB -- Kentucky

Back to that inside linebacker position which truly has question marks all around it in Green Bay.  If they want Clay back to his natural edge rushing position then they'll need to start stacking some guys in the middle for competition purposes.  May the best men win and Forrest could very well be one of them, finishing his senior season as the third most efficient tackler in the SEC.

Backup Plan

Malcolm Mitchell -- WR -- Georgia
An explosive guy who will sit at the back end of the depth chart, but can make a case for himself in special teams.  These types of players are always necessary to snag at some point.

We still await results from the combine, and that could definitely shift the evaluation on some of these players.  However the most pressing needs for this team boil down to inside linebacker, edge rusher, and an offensive lineman of some sort.  A healthy Packers team will continue to make noise in the NFC, but building from the draft is one of the essential reasons why they have not missed the playoffs over the last six years in the first place.

Driven for the Division

    
      As we enter the final weekend of NFL regular season, three games are on schedule in which the winner will win their division and proceed to host at least one game in the postseason.  Fortunately, five of the six teams in these games have already locked in a playoff berth, but that shouldn't stop them from playing this next game like it’s all or nothing. 


Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

    Both teams have somewhat recent playoff experience.  It was only last year that Carolina had a first round bye as the number two seed in the NFC.  Boy have things changed and by the end of this game we’ll be looking at our second 7-win playoff team in four seasons.
    Matt Ryan and his offense haven’t been able to put the type of production they’re capable of, mostly due to the season long o-line issues.  On the other side of things, Cam Newton has been up and down all season, but the recent emergence of a running game with Jonathan Stewart has brought more life to the Panthers as they try to close out the year with 4 straight victories.   Home field plays such a huge advantage in games like this and I don’t expect things to change.  With a tandem like Julio Jones and Roddy White, Matt Ryan should continuously attack the young corners of Josh Norman and Bene Benwikere. 

Prediction: Carolina 20 Atlanta 28

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers

    Another year, another Week 17 NFC North title game for the Packers.  This time they face one of the league’s best defenses and perhaps the single best receiver.  Their first meeting in late September won’t likely translate over to this week’s game.  Green Bay was held to 223 total yards of offense and put up 7 points in their 12 point defeat to Detroit.
    Now they’re in Lambeau field, where the Pack Attack are not only undefeated, but they are putting up stupid numbers.  It isn’t likely Eddie Lacy is held to under 40 yards on the ground, but slowing him down will still be Detroit’s first priority, forcing Green Bay to become one-dimensional. 
    Most people aren’t giving the Lions a shot in this one and while that seems reasonable, I can’t see either team breaking this game open.

    Prediction:  Detroit 17 Green Bay 23

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers


    Cincy could not enter this game in a much better fashion, following a strong victory at home against the #2 seeded Denver Broncos.  Paul Guenther has done a great job coordinating this defense as of late and it makes things much easier for an offense that has had their elite wide receiver banged up.
    Well, AJ Green says he’ll be back this week and that makes this Sunday night prime time matchup slated to be a good one.  Pittsburgh’s Big-3 of Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown has simply torn apart teams this season and other AFC contenders might rather see the Bengals victorious, especially considering their recent playoff woes. 
    Ultimately, I think the Steelers come out with a hard, mixed attack that will continue to keep Cincinnati on their heels the whole game. 

    Cincinnati 13 Pittsburgh 31


   

The Final Stretch

     Approaching Week 14 in the National Football League and only four games remain for 26 teams that are still alive in playoff contention.  Teams have a few options at this point.  They can stay locked in where they are, step into the picture or… fade out of it.  This is a time of the year that almost excites me just as much as the postseason itself, because every game played takes on a little bit more meaning.  Let’s break down the remaining schedule for those still in the race to Super Bowl XLIX:

Top Seeds

AFC

New England Patriots (9-3) - After a tight loss in Lambeau, the Pats have been blessed with facing all of their division foes to close out the season.  Not to mention two of those games are in Foxboro where they have simply dominated this season.  Expect New England to keep the top seed, but if worse comes to worst, drop to the second spot. 
@ SD
vs. MIA
@ NYJ
vs. BUF

Peyton Manning has thrown 36 TDs to just 9 picks

Denver Broncos (9-3) - Two tough road games ahead in San Diego, then Cincinnati.  The Broncos should seal the second seed assuming Peyton continues to play at the level he has.  But if either the Bengals or Colts win out, things could get interesting. 
vs. BUF
@ SD
@ CIN
vs. OAK

NFC

Arizona Cardinals (9-3) - The Cardinals have been resilient all season despite quarterback issues.  However, I think their reign as the best team in the conference has come to an end.  None of their next four games are particularly easy including what could be a pivotal season finale in San Fran. 

Arizona remains the top seed after losing their last two

vs. KC
@ STL
vs. SEA
@SF

Green Bay Packers (9-3) - The hottest team in the league looks ahead to one of the easiest finishing schedules.  Signs point to the Packers hosting a game in Lambeau after a first-round bye.  Their only concern may be in Week 17 when they rematch against one of the only three teams to beat them this season.
vs. ATL
@ BUF
@ TB
vs. DET

Other Division Leaders

AFC

Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1) - The Bengals might actually be worse than their record indicates.  Considering their upcoming opponents, they might also be in danger of missing the playoffs.  Andy Dalton has to step up his game quick.
vs. PIT
@ CLE
vs. DEN
@PIT

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) - The AFC South is bad.  Because of this, the Colts could be the first team in the league to clinch a division crown.  That would mark a third straight season Andrew Luck has made the playoffs to open up his young career.
@ CLE
vs. HOU
@ DAL
@ TEN

NFC

Foles went down in a Week 9 matchup in Houston

Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) - What a convincing win in Dallas on Thanksgiving.  I still believe this division won’t be decided until the final week, as usual.  If Foles is truly coming back  within a matter of a few weeks, Philly has a slight advantage.
vs. SEA
vs. DAL
@ WAS
@ NYG

Atlanta Falcons (5-7) - It would shock me to see Atlanta still in this spot by season’s end.  When it comes to on-the-field play, they just don’t look like a playoff team. 
@ GB
vs. PIT
@ NO
vs. CAR

Wild Card

AFC

The combined record for San Diego's remaining opponents is 32-16

San Diego Chargers (8-4) - God bless the Chargers.  Contending for a playoff spot suddenly seems like a tall task when you look ahead.
vs. NE
vs. DEN
@ SF
@ KC

Miami Dolphins (7-5) - This team has fought its’ way through some close victories all season long.  Honestly, it’s still hard to tell how they’re going to play on a given week. The Dolphins might have to win three out of four to solidify a playoff berth. 
vs. BAL
@ NE
vs. MIN
vs. NYJ

NFC

Seattle Seahawks (8-4) - Not quite the super bowl champion team we saw last season, but the Seahawks are still among the top in the conference.  That status will be heavily tested in the upcoming weeks as they continue a 3-way battle for the NFC West crown. 
@ PHI
vs. SF
@ AZ
vs. STL

In 2013, Bush topped 1,000 yards rushing for the second time in his career

Detroit Lions (8-4) - Well they get Reggie Bush back and their next few games aren’t exactly against solid opponents.  The Lions have a good shot at keeping a wild card bid, but winning the division might be too much to ask.
vs. TB
vs. MIN
@ CHI
@ GB

Still Alive

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) - The Chiefs will need to get ahead against teams in order to keep the foundation of a run game going.  I could see them winning 2 more games but even 9-7 may not cut it in the AFC.
@AZ
vs. OAK
@ PIT
vs. SD

Buffalo Bills (7-5) - It was fun while it lasted for the Buffalo.  7-5 was more than they could ask for at this point in this season.  Unfortunately they still need to play three of the NFL’s best teams.
@ DEN
vs. GB
@ OAK

Joe Flacco has a 20-8 TD-INT ratio, his most efficient season to date

@ NE

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) - Last season the Ravens missed the postseason for the first time in 6 years.  I have a hard time believing they will let that happen again, and they’re looking at a favorable schedule to complete the season.
@ MIA
vs. JAX
@ HOU
vs. CLE

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) - Man those games against Cincinnati will prove to be critical.  Pittsburgh has been a fun team to watch this year, from Big Ben’s 5 TD games to Le’Veon Bell’s standout performances.  I expect them to be playing once January rolls around. 
@ CIN
@ ATL
vs. KC
vs. CIN

Cleveland Browns (7-5) - The Browns are the biggest surprise to me this year.  Whether Johnny Manziel starts during this final stretch or not, they’ve made some progress as a team and the future may not be as dark as we thought.  But a playoff team?  Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.
vs. IND
vs. CIN
@ CAR
@ BAL

Houston Texans (6-6) - Two games versus the Jaguars give this team an outside shot of being a wild card team.  Of course, no games are freebies and the Texans have shown they are one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. 
@ JAX
@ IND
vs. BAL
vs. JAX

NFC

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) - While 8-8 for a 4th straight season is unlikely, missing out on the postseason isn’t necessarily. If it comes down to the final week of the season like always, Dallas is fortunate to play an underachieving Redskins team.  But the key game for them is an attempt on revenge in Philadelphia.
@ CHI
@ PHI
vs.  IND
@ WAS

San Francisco 49ers (7-5) - A nice cushion game up next for Niners before they go up against some tough teams.  Their scenario is really difficult to predict because, like Seattle, they aren’t the same dominant team they were over the past couple years. Don’t be surprised to see them left out of the picture. 
@ OAK
@ SEA
vs. SD
vs. AZ

The Saints have dropped 3 straight games at the Superdome

New Orleans Saints (5-7) - An ugly year for all participants in the NFC South.  However, someone in this division will get to host a playoff game and who better than New Orleans.  Besides, they’re no stranger to postseason play. 
vs. CAR
@ CHI
vs. ATL
@ TB

Chicago Bears (5-7) - Chicago’s best chance to spark a strong finish was last Thursday in Detroit.    They just can’t seem to keep momentum going long enough during games.  The Bears will probably have to win out in order to get any wild card opportunity, but that would actually require Jay Cutler to start utilizing his weapons.
vs. Dallas
vs. NO
vs. DET
@ MIN

Minnesota Vikings (5-7) - Without a legitimate quarterback and running back to most people’s standards, the Vikings have somehow managed to compete in a lot of games this year.  7-9 exceeds expectations made for this team. 
vs. NYJ
@ DET
@ MIA
vs. CHI

St. Louis Rams (5-7) - Talk about a “bad” team with some quality wins.  Including a 52-0 shutout against Oakland last week, the Rams boast victories the Broncos, 49ers and Seahawks.  And after all that, it’s doubtful they make the playoffs. 
@ WAS
vs. AZ
vs. NYG
@ SEA

Carolina Panthers (3-8-1) - After going 12-4 and taking the #2 seed last season, the Panthers have gone completely into the other direction.  Yes, the defense isn’t as stingy, but a Cam Newton led offense is struggling to barely put up 20 points a game.  Somethings gotta give here. 
@ NO
vs. TB
vs. CLE
@ ATL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) - A team with two wins all season is somehow “still alive”.  They’ll be dead in about a week.
@ DET
@ CAR
vs. GB
vs. NO

A Turkey Feather on Pig Skin: Part II

    

     Welcome to my second installment in the turkey feather on pig skin series.  After going 2-1 with my picks in 2012, I decided it was deserving of me to take a year off and pursue other holiday endeavors.  Here we are in week 13 of 2014 and boy has it been a weird year.  One AFC division is in a four team race where all teams are tied, 7 wins a piece.  Meanwhile over in the NFC, a division leader sits at 4-7 and one of their rivals is trailing just two games behind with a 2-9 record.  It's almost a little funny when you think about it, and not too surprising considering the league is full of parity.

     The NFL on Turkey Day has been a tradition for nearly a century, but at this point we should just get straight to the point and call it the NFC on Thanksgiving. All six teams on the field Thursday play in that conference, and all six teams are in the heat of a late-season playoff race. 

     The first of the three division games will be the Chicago Bears coming to Detroit.  We can finally forget about a Detroit Lions team that was ridiculed for still being allowed to play on this holiday.  It's safe to say they have come around, and are now considered one of the best teams in the NFC.  Despite a lopsided loss in New England last week, this team still has one of the best defensive fronts in football.  But looking at this specific match-up, the 5-6 Bears have better chance of winning than what the game on paper indicates.  That young Lions secondary will have quite the challenge working against the receiving duo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.  We've seen it before, Cutler can suddenly look like a pro bowler again if he starts getting in a rhythm with either of these guys.  With most of the attention on those two, an unexpected player to look out for is tight end Martellus Bennett.  Overall, I still think the true impact of this game comes down to Matt Stafford & Calvin Johnson vs. the inconsistent Bears defense that is also without their best player, Lance Briggs.  Reggie Bush will be out so that's one less weapon Chicago has to worry about.  As if the best wide receiver in football wasn't already enough...

 I see this being a close, relatively high-scoring affair, but the Lions will strike first and never get behind.

Prediction:

Chicago Bears 27

Detroit Lions 31




     Even after a 6-1 start, the Dallas Cowboys had me questioning if they were a true powerhouse in the conference.  They proceeded to lose two games, and their quarterback for one, but have since bounced back with a couple unimpressive wins against the Jaguars and Giants.  This is an offense with a top-flight receiver, league leading rusher and just about the best line in the entire NFL and they still can't seem to blow teams out of the water.  Well when your record is 8-3, I guess you really don't need to worry about those sort of things.  Philadelphia comes in at the same standing, but without their starting quarterback that lead them to a division crown last season.  This one is simple to me, LeSean McCoy needs to get touches, lots of them.  Mark Sanchez will not be slicing through this Dallas defense, as it's more likely he'll be seeing pressure.  Dumping off to McCoy could be his savior.

The new blueprint has worked well for the Cowboys so unless they go back to the old blueprint of beating themselves, there shouldn't be much of a problem beating the Eagles at home.

Philadelphia Eagles 17

Dallas Cowboys 28

Galloping Gobbler Award:  Tony Romo


And the encore of all this Turkey Day action concludes with one of the best division rivalries in football right now.  The 49ers are graced with the home game, and history tells us this will be a defensive battle. San Francisco and Seattle both enter this week with a 7-4 record, and it will be the first time the two teams meet this season.  Neither is looking like the Super Bowl contenders they've been in recent years, but a game like this can propel some momentum pretty quickly. As obvious as it may seem, look for each team to try and work off their rushing attack.  It's hard to give one side an advantage when both have stellar defenses and quarterbacks that can hurt you on the ground when the pass plays break down.

       San Francisco has more offensive weapons in their arsenal, but when it comes down to the final possessions in a tight contest, I'd rather have the ball in Russell Wilson's hands.  And that's only if Marshawn "Skittles" Lynch can't get the job done first.

Seattle Seahawks 23

San Francisco 49ers 13




       Well there you have it.  I hope to continue this turkey football saga for years to come, but make sure to check back frequently before then because there are more articles to come.  Have a safe and happy holiday and remember, football comes first.  

    

The Season of Redemption

There isn't much debate as to what the most prestigious honor for an individual player in the National Football League is.  But every year sparks a new debate when discussing who deserves to be the "most valuable player".  Looking back to last season however, Packer's QB Aaron Rodgers boasted the award by winning in a landslide over the only other candidate, Drew Brees. It makes perfect sense when you throw for 45 touchdowns, 6 interceptions and the greatest passer rating in a single season at 122.5.

Things get a bit more interesting this season though.  It could be the fact that the top two candidates also deserve the Comeback Player of the Year Award, or maybe because one of the players is a running back and that's something we're not used to seeing ever year. 

Honorable Mentions:

J.J. Watt, Defensive End, Houston Texans--

The only defensive player in the league that remotely deserves attention for this award, and boy has he been recognized.  We can talk all day about the physical freak that Watt is, but this guy is a presence every play on the field and is revolutionizing the 3-4 end position.  The most striking part of his game this season was pass deflections.  With 16 tipped balls, Watt stood up there with some of the best defensive backs and his 20.5 sacks lead the league.  Add in 4 forced fumbles (2 recovered) and you have what should be our unanimous Defensive Player of the Year.  Alan Page and Lawrence Taylor are the only two defensive players in NFL history to win MVP and while it is likely to stay that way after this season, J.J. Watt is sure to keep his tenacity known in the upcoming seasons.


Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, Green Bay Packers--

Our reigning MVP instilled yet another high-production year at the QB position despite what many people are calling a "slow start".  Rodgers did face some frightful defenses the first few weeks, but as the season progressed we began to see the true colors of the recent Super Bowl champ.  With a strong finish, Rodgers managed to nudge out Peyton and RGIII for the highest passer rating at 108.0 and ultimately lead his team to another division title with an 11-5 record.  Green Bay's shoddy offensive line proved to be a problem all season long with Rodgers getting sacked a league-high 51 times.  While it's hard to penalize him for that, he also has a knack of holding on to the ball too long.  Anyone can make a convincing argument for this guy as the MVP... especially considering his top two targets struggled to stay on the field for much of the season and there's always the faint concept that is the Packer's rushing attack.



Runner-Up:

 Peyton Manning, Quarterback, Denver Broncos--

After missing an entire season and undergoing neck surgery, not many people thought #18 would be in prime contention for this award.  Well, let's not forget it's Peyton Manning and just about every season he's played has induced MVP-like production.  This season he took an 8-8 Broncos squad that based it's offense around running the football and turned it into a vintage Peyton passing attack with the help of a some young studded receivers.  These types of teams usually succeed, and this year was no different as Manning improved Denver by 5 games from last season.  Numbers don't do him justice, but he did happen to tie Matt Ryan for the highest completion percentage (68.6%).  Peyton might be the only player in the league that could single-handedly coach an entire offense, and that alone speaks volumes about how "valuable" he is to a given team. 


2012 Most Valuable Player


 Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings--

I'm going to save everyone some time by not discussing how remarkable it is for a player to return and play even better after a  ACL/MCL tear.  Instead I will elaborate on why the man they call "All Day" is this year's most valuable player.  I hear a lot about how this award has become more of an "outstanding" player award, but either way you put it, Peterson fits the title.  With four games remaining in the regular season and a 6-6 record, the Vikings playoff hopes were fading fast.  Winning out and snagging a wild card spot cannot be credited more to Peterson, as the Viking's halfback ran for at least 150 yards and a touchdown in three of those four wins.  Not only do we have a clutch performer on our hands, but a player who was nine yards short of the all-time rushing record in a passing league.  How much more valuable can you be when a defense's game plan centers around stopping you, and it just doesn't seem to matter?  Even though they haven't been recording the stat of 20+ yard runs for long, Peterson's 27 of them is far more than any other running back in a season throughout the past decade.  One last piece of info I want to point out is his yards per carry average, which is a solid 6.0. Guys like C.J. Spiller managed to tie that mark on 207 carries.  How many rushes did AD have this season? 348.  A complete and utter workhorse, Adrian Peterson is not only the best running back in the league right now, but this year's most valuable player. 

A Turkey Feather on Pig Skin

      While we all love and bless the food we are given on Thanksgiving, we can never forget the other necessity on this wonderful day; football.  Traditionally we are used to seeing two games that each feature the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys, but these past few years have featured a third game played at night..  Thank you NFL, as if over 6 hours of football wasn't already enough for one holiday.

       Historically the Lions have been scheduled on every Thanksgiving as far as I've been alive.  To this day I still question the reasoning behind it. Detroit has not managed a Turkey Day win since 2003 against the division rival Packers, marking 8 straight losses since.  This year's game fails to look like a  promising outcome for the Lions as they are put to the test against the 9-1 Houston Texans.  Coming off two straight losses, the once intimidating Lions defense has struggled throughout the season to maintain balance from the front-7 to the secondary.  The key for the Lions in winning is slowing the rhythm of the Texans run game that ranks 8th in the NFL lead by all-pro rusher Arian Foster.  The Lions do not want to find themselves in a hole early with the Texans controlling the clock with runs and play actions.  With the double..and even triple teams on Calvin Johnson, it will be important for Stafford to establish another go-to-guy for the Lions, potentially being Titus Young, but the options will need to be open for this passing offense.

      I've watched Houston seriously struggle against two NFC North team's already this season, and I'm not about to watch a third.  Expect the Texans to look confident all game long and let their play style take command of the game.

Prediction:


Houston Texans 32

Detroit Lions 19

Romo is 5-0 in career Thanksgiving games

     The next game on slate is quite the handful. An NFC East division battle featuring two teams that need this one pretty badly.  The Cowboys at 5-5 are not the team they envisioned.  Despite their mediocre record this Dallas team finds itself squirming away in wins and giving-up in losses.  With Demarco Murray looking doubtful, Tony Romo will once again be carrying a large load as the 'Boys' QB has averaged nearly 40 pass attempts per start this season.  Imbalance in the offense is unfortunate with Rob Ryan doing his part, conducting the Dallas defense to #7 overall.  The team will need to put both sides together on Thursday afternoon, facing a Redskins team who are desperate to keep playoff hopes alive at 4-6.  Washington brings in a top rushing-offense carried by two emerging rookies, QB Robert Griffin III and RB Alfred  Morris.  The tandem have combined for nearly 1,500 yards on the ground. 

Galloping Gobbler Award

      At home, on Thanksgiving, it's really hard to go against the Cowboys.  Their only recent loss on the occasion was against the Saints two years ago when Roy Williams fumbled the game away and Jon Kitna was playing quarterback.  It's hard to picture the Cowboys dominating a game on both sides of the ball, especially a division game.  But somehow, someway, Romo and company will sneak away with this one, and it could be ugly as usual.

Prediction:                      
Redskins 17
Cowboys 22 

Galloping Gobbler: Dez Bryant

   Call me a cranky fan but I have yet to enjoy a night game on Thanksgiving.  Whether it's the games on schedule or just the fact that I'm tired out from the day, I'm never satisfied.  With that being said, another division-filled game will be on tap for Thursday night when the Pats come to visit the Jets at MetLife Stadium.  On paper, this game is far from enticing.  New York (4-6) is looking for some sort momentum they could ride for a playoff spot, but playing a top-five offense will be a difficult place to start.  New England (7-3)  escaped in an overtime victory weeks back in Foxboro, so I'm sure we'll see Rex pose his best revenge tactics possible in this one.  Throwing odd and sporadic blitzes at Tom Brady has succeeded in the past, but the Jets don't have the same defense we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years.

Brady and Belichick are 4-1 in last 5 reg. season games vs. Rex's Jets

      Unless we finally see some true Tebow Time on Thursday night, the Patriots should handle this one outright.  The New England offense appeared out of sync the last meeting against New York, but look for Brady to spread the ball around while complimenting the run game led by Stevan Ridley.

Prediction:
Patriots 31
Jets 13


  

 


  NFL Thanksgiving Schedule
Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions CBS 12:30
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys FOX 4:25
New England Patriots @ New York Jets NBC 8:20